However it happened, it’s clear that those who stole a world-famous portrait of Sir Winston Churchill from Château Laurier planned the heist meticulously.
It took more than eight months to realize that the photo hanging from the wood-paneled walls of the Reading Lounge was a fake.
“It was very premeditated,” said Bonnie Czegledi, an Ontario lawyer who specializes in international art and heritage law.
Art thefts don’t surprise Czegledi, but she was surprised to hear that this portrait had been stolen, “because the subject matter is so specific.”
Even those who have spent decades studying Churchill’s legacy are confused.
Historian Andrew Roberts, who wrote a biography of the former British prime minister, called it “a rather strange story”.
“He’s not a Picasso,” said Ron Cohen, president of the Sir Winston Churchill Society of Ottawa.
“That said… I think it’s probably the most famous photo of any political figure ever.  I think it’s a great piece.”
The portrait has an important connection with Château Laurier itself.  The photographer, Yousuf Karsh, lived in the hotel for 18 years.  It was the studio’s home for 20 years.
When Churchill made a wartime speech to the Canadian Parliament in 1941, Kars asked then-Prime Minister William Lyon Mackenzie King to take his portrait.
The resulting image of Churchill standing with one hand on a chair, the other on his waist, climbing into the camera, captured the mood of the Allied nations.  He appears defiant and determined.  Scholars say the photo steeled the Allies’ resolve.
The Karsh Estate says the photographer’s entire portfolio of 350,000 prints and negatives was given to Library and Archives Canada after his death in 1992 and no more copies were to be made.
However, this is not the only copy in existence — it is not even the only original.
Sotheby’s in London had one up for auction in 2020, valued at between US$20,000 and US$26,000.  The auction house declined to disclose the final price.
The Rideau Club of Ottawa has another in Churchill Hall.
Another hangs in the Speaker’s Chamber of the House of Commons, near the same spot where it was taken.
Richard Langworth, a senior fellow at the Hillsdale College Churchill Project in New Hampshire, said he couldn’t figure out what was “so unique” about this particular portrait.
“Why bother?”  he said.  “And then replace it with a fake one?”
Several experts believe the thieves had a specific buyer in mind.
“This is the business model of organized crime,” Czegledi said.
Photos taken by guests allowed hotel management to narrow down the time frame of the theft to a 12-day period between Christmas and January 6.
No surprise, Cegledi said.
“Holidays like Christmas and New Year are a very high risk for art crime and art theft because people are busy with other things.”
The story has captured the imagination of many around the world.  It’s not every day that an art heist happens in one of the nation’s capital’s most famous buildings.
Ironically, the timing of its discovery last week is nearly 50 years after the largest art heist in Canadian history took place in Montreal.
Known as the Skylight Capper, the story reads like a movie script.
On September 4, 1972, a man climbed a tree near the Museum of Fine Arts in the middle of the night.  He lowered a ladder from the roof to two others, who reached a skylight under repair.
A disabled safety system allowed them to open the skylight, drop a 15m rope inside and drop to the second floor.
They tied up and gagged three security guards, with one thief holding them at gunpoint as the others walked through the museum and collected 55 pieces.  Among them were 17 paintings, including a Rembrandt.
“A museum representative (at the time) said they had very discerning taste,” Cegledi said.
What followed was just as dramatic: a ransom demand, including a folder full of photographs sent as proof of possession to the museum director.  the return of a stolen locket, left in a telephone booth.  the return of a painting by Breguel the Elder, left in a railway station cupboard;  and plans a secret rendezvous with the thieves.
In the end nothing more was found and no one was arrested.
“The problem is that the beauty of these objects diminishes the seriousness of the crime,” Cegledi said.
“There’s this preconceived notion that it’s just fluff, but it’s not.  It’s a serious matter.”
The Canadian Department of Cultural Heritage said in a statement that the art trade “has evolved from a cultural issue to a transnational organized crime issue and a source of funding for terrorist groups.”
“It can be seen as a matter of national security,” Czegledi said.  “We see some terrorists and organized crime diversifying their portfolio in the art world.”
Canada does not keep specific statistics on art theft, instead combining it with every other form of property theft.
Czegledi said this amounts to a poor understanding of both the scope of the problem and the intangible value of art.
In the United States, the Federal Bureau of Investigation has a specially trained unit dedicated to art theft.  The only place in Canada with something similar is Quebec, which created its own unit in 2008.
Canada does not have specific anti-money laundering laws for art, unlike the UK
Czegledi said stronger investigation and prosecution would go a long way, as would sentencing guidelines for judges who may not understand the art world.
“Because of the atmosphere here, we’re a soft target.”
Canada is a signatory to a United Nations convention that prohibits the importation of cultural goods illegally exported from another state party to the convention.
However, the United States requires separate agreements with individual countries that regulate the circulation of cultural material.  It has agreements with more than two dozen countries.  The agreement with Canada expired two decades ago.
“A request by Canada to renew the agreement when it expired in 2002 was not successful,” said a spokesman for Canadian Heritage, adding that law enforcement agencies work together on an ad hoc basis.
Czegledi said it is tragic that art theft continues.  “How many lessons do we have to have to learn?”