Yurii Vitrenko, head of state gas company Naftogaz, said indoor temperatures would settle between 17 and 18C, about four degrees below normal, and advised people to stock up on blankets and warm clothes for when outside temperatures drop and beyond the winter average of -10C. The “heating period”, the period when the central heating is on, will come later and end earlier, Vitrenko said. The goal depends on Ukraine’s international allies giving it the funds it needs to import 4 billion cubic meters worth of natural gas, and no wildcards being played – such as Russia destroying gas infrastructure or further reducing natural gas supplies gas in Europe. “Without the [western] financial support we will lack natural gas and this will mean that we will have really high risks for the electricity system [going] down,” Vitrenko said. He described how Naftogaz supported some of Ukraine’s electricity companies with gas in March when coal supplies were halted due to the war. “[Otherwise] there would be no electricity,” he said. “[Without the gas imports], there will be blackouts in large areas of Ukraine,” Vitrenko said. “In terms of heating, if we don’t have that 2 billion cbm of gas, then that will mean that some of the households will not have enough heating … so it will be very cold.” Ukraine produces about 60% of the natural gas it needs on the domestic market and imports the rest from its neighbors in the European Union at market prices. The country stopped buying natural gas from Russia directly in 2014, although it still consumes much of the same Russian gas that comes via pipelines through Ukraine from EU suppliers. This roundabout system was devised to prevent Russia from using natural gas as a tool to influence Ukraine. Gas contracts between Russia and Ukraine have long been a source of major corruption, with Ukrainian politicians and oligarchs allowing Russia to influence the country’s internal affairs in exchange for cheap gas. Ukraine needs about $10 billion to import natural gas. Vitrenko said he believed its allies understood the need, but he could not be sure Ukraine would receive the funds because “it is very difficult to be confident during a war.” However, the current calculation could change if, for example, Russia targets any of Ukraine’s critical natural gas infrastructure, power plants or natural gas production facilities. About 50% of Ukraine’s natural gas fields are located in the Kharkiv region, four miles from the front lines. If it or Ukraine’s storage facilities were to fail, Ukraine would have to import more gas. Another much-discussed risk is if Russia decides to further cut gas supplies to the EU, making gas costs even more expensive. Russia cut off supplies to the EU earlier this year, dramatically raising gas and electricity prices in some countries, including the UK. “The world is experiencing the first truly global energy crisis in history,” Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, wrote last month. “The situation is particularly dangerous in Europe, which is at the heart of the energy market turmoil.” Archie Bland and Nimo Omer take you to the top stories and what they mean, free every weekday morning Privacy Notice: Newsletters may contain information about charities, online advertising and content sponsored by external parties. For more information, see our Privacy Policy. We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and Google’s Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. Ukraine’s state gas company filed for bankruptcy in July, saying the war had left many of its customers unable to pay their bills. Normally, Vitrenko said, Ukraine’s state gas company would buy gas from the EU and sell it for a profit. However, given soaring prices and endemic war-induced unemployment, Ukraine will need to subsidize energy prices this year. Russia has targeted critical energy infrastructure since February, including oil refineries and power plants. In the event that natural gas infrastructure or gas production facilities are targeted, Ukraine is preparing emergency kits that could serve up to 200,000 people, including mobile boilers, mobile heating units and diesel generators. “If a big city like Kyiv or Kharkiv [is cut off]of course, [the kits] it won’t be enough, but in some small towns these emergency kits will make a difference,” Vitrenko said. “It all depends on the extent of the damage.”
