While Republicans continue to lead with people who prioritize the economy, at least three things moderate their overall advantage:
Donald Trump — while midterm elections are often referendums on the sitting president, this is also about the former. For the majority of voters it is a factor, either for or against him. Democrats are winning voters whose vote is based “a lot” on how they feel about Trump. Republican candidates: both women and independents (core voting groups) are more likely to say that it is Republicans who have nominated candidates they would call extreme – more so than Democratic candidates.
What about Mar-a-Lago and the document search?
File it under “About Donald Trump”. The FBI probe didn’t immediately swing many votes because of sharp partisan divisions over it, but then, it could be part of a larger issue holding back Republicans as Donald Trump remains on voters’ minds. Trump is a big plus for his own partisans, but they were voting Republican anyway. Most Republicans want party leaders to stand by Trump here and not criticize him. But that creates a challenge for the GOP because… Trump is a net negative for independents. Independents would rather Republicans criticize Trump to support him at Mar-a-Lago. Half of independent voters cite Trump as a factor in their vote, and four to one vote to oppose him (much worse than Biden’s support-to-oppose ratio).
Most independents, like most Democrats, see the Mar-a-Lago investigation as an effort to protect national security. They differ from Republicans, who see a political attack on Trump.
Abortion
Why it has emerged as an important factor:
There is a widespread perception among women that if Republicans win office, they will prioritize restricting abortion (65%), even more than inflation (56%). More Democrats (77%) say abortion is “very important” than describe any other issue that way — tied with gun policy and ahead of the economy and inflation. By more than two to one, likely voters say their vote for Congress will be to support abortion rights rather than oppose them. Motivation around the issue is one-sided: Republicans tend to say their vote is not about abortion, but most Democrats say overturning Roe has strengthened their support for their party’s candidates. It can help Democratic candidates with people on the fence: third-party and undecided voters for whom overturning Roe is a factor they say makes them want to back Democrats over Republicans by a four-to-one margin.
In the last two elections, white women with college degrees have been critical to the winning Democratic coalition, voting for them by double digits. And then this year, amid economic pessimism, Democrats slid with this group. Today we see Democrats rebounding: their lead among white women with a college degree has grown by seven points since July and is now 13 points. It’s not back to 2018 levels, but it helps explain some of the change in positions because these women are critical in key districts. More of those who were undecided have moved toward the Democrats, for now. The abortion issue is a motivator – most people say their vote this year will be to support abortion rights.
Gas and the economy — can Biden hang on?
A majority of voters say gas prices in their area are falling. Fewer Americans view the economy negatively than they did a month ago, although things are still viewed as bad. Recession fears loom, but more voters now see the economy at least holding steady than they did in June. Biden’s job approval, specifically his ratings for handling issues such as the economy, inflation and gas prices, have risen. His overall job approval number is the highest among registered voters since February. Here’s why improving views on the economy are helping to strengthen the Democratic base heading into the fall:
Much of Mr. Biden’s gains have come from Democrats. He’s up 8 points since July as Democrats strongly approve of him. And we’re seeing a notable boost in their feelings about the county overall: 52% now say things are at least somewhat good, up from 39% in July. This is beginning to reverse some of the losses we’ve seen in Mr. Biden’s own party over the last year. These developments may have given the base a reason for reassessment. Look at young people, who Democrats rely on: canceling some student loan debt is especially popular with voters under 30. And the president’s overall approval rating has moved into positive territory between them now, since last month.
The next hurdle for Democrats, however, is getting young people to vote in off-year elections – they still don’t vote in the numbers that older people do. Among voters overall, the improvement is smaller: 28% now say things are going well, up from 22% last month. That’s still low, of course. The Inflation Reduction Act is getting narrow majority approval from voters, but opinion is divided on whether it will help them personally. Likewise, a small majority supported canceling student loan debt.
So why do Republicans still have an advantage?
Democrats may be able to stem the tide or shore up their base, but Republicans still hold a big lead among voters who prioritize inflation and the economy. Moreover, a time of voter frustration on these issues will not disappear overnight, as shown by more voters believing that Republicans will prioritize inflation if they win control of Congress than Democrats if they do. There are also safer Republican than Democratic seats in the House. Republicans only need to flip four competitive seats to win the majority. Our model shows that they would be able to do so if the election were today. This CBS News/YouGov Battleground Tracker survey was conducted with a nationally representative sample of 2,126 registered voters surveyed between August 24 and 26, 2022. The sample was weighted by gender, age, race and education based on the American Community Survey of US Census and Current Population Survey, as well as the 2020 presidential election. Margin of error is ±2.4 points. House seat estimates are based on a post-stratified multilevel regression model incorporating voter responses to this survey. Each party’s seat estimate has a margin of error of ±13 seats. Top lines: More Anthony Salvanto Anthony Salvanto, Ph.D., is director of elections and research for CBS News. He oversees all polling across the nation, states and congressional races and heads the CBS News Decisions Bureau that estimates results on election nights. He is the author of “Where Did You Get This Number: A Pollster’s Guide to Making Sense of the World,” from Simon & Schuster (a division of ViacomCBS) and appears regularly on all CBS News platforms. His scholarly research and writings cover topics related to polling methodology, voting behavior, and sampling techniques.
