All are retirees in their 70s – the sons of Chinese Nationalist soldiers – and were born or raised in Taiwan during the brutal decades of martial law. It is the demographic most likely to support Taiwan’s “unification” with China. And they do – mostly. But the issue is complicated: Taiwan operates internally as a completely independent country, with its own democratically elected government, currency, military and vibrant civil society. However, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) believes it is a province of China that should be “reunified” with the mainland – peacefully preferably, but also by force if necessary. Despite threats and intimidation from Beijing and its military, Taiwan’s resistance to unification only grows stronger. More and more people also self-identify as exclusively Taiwanese, not exclusively Chinese, or both. More show support for independence. Retired businessman Harry Chen believes that Taiwan is part of China and would be better off agreeing to be a Chinese province. Photo: Helen Davidson/The Observer But this month a poll in Taiwan showed nearly 12 percent of respondents still supported unification. Other research has shown this percentage to be around 5%-10%. The number has declined over the years, but a stubborn section that says yes to “one China” suggests that a significant group of people in Taiwan are not pushing for independence like many of their countrymen. Some analysts also say that this group could be enough to vote hardline pro-China candidates – some of whom also have ties to organized crime – into local government. Given the military exercises and threats to Taiwan, and the deteriorating freedoms and rights within China, it is fair to wonder why anyone in Taiwan would want to return to life under authoritarian rule, decades after leaving it behind. “People’s understanding of consolidation has changed quite a bit over the decades,” said Jeremy Huai-Che Huang, a Taipei-based analyst. Today, people in Taiwan tend to see the prospect of unification through the lens of Hong Kong. There is little confidence in President Xi Jinping’s promises – repeated in a recent White Paper – to maintain anything close to the freedom and autonomy they now enjoy. Taiwanese politics is famously combative and highly divisive, operating in an almost equally partisan local media environment. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party is accused by China of being separatist and by critics of exacerbating tensions by courting global support. The nationalist Kuomintang (KMT), the official opposition party, has an aging base and is struggling to regain popularity while remaining true to its roots. It has not been helped by a faction that Dafydd Fell, director of the Taiwan Studies Center at Soas University of London, said was “taking a pretty strong pro-unification line”. They are also flanked by fringe pro-unification parties, including some linked to the alleged crime syndicate Bamboo. These fringe groups, often seen protesting or harassing pro-Taiwan delegates and events, get “disproportionate” airtime considering their almost non-existent vote, but they know how to mobilize and some are mysteriously well-funded, Fell says. Pro-unification people are generally believed to be concentrated in the older generations, are likely to be KMT voters, and are usually male. Huang said there are still some young supporters, including a Chinese nationalist minority, but they are often just “defeatists” and believe Taiwan would lose a conflict and should cut its losses now. Fell outlines other influences on unification advocates, including rising nationalism and CCP propaganda and disinformation. Some supporters are driven by cynicism about Taiwan’s divisive party politics and long for the CCP’s strong leadership or martial law. There are those who have benefited financially from closer ties with China and who “just try to stay out of politics … and find this kind of PRC nationalism quite disturbing,” while some have spent decades in China, the US and Taiwan and have decided that they support and trust the CCP. Chen is at the harshest end. He said life for everyone would be better if Taiwan would just accept that it is a Chinese province and its democratic government would peacefully accept the benefits of China’s economic might and global power. “What normal people want in life is a good life, peace and happiness,” he said. “People who want independence, that’s bullshit – they’re lying to themselves.” He spoke of a stability in Taiwan that has disappeared since the democratization of the 1980s. He cited the decline of the US, the widening wealth gap and Boris Johnson in general as evidence that Western democracy is not working. Many other factors and variations are also on the Taipei restaurant table. All five men identify as Chinese and believe that Taiwan is part of China, citing history, ethnicity, culture and language. Two men, including Chen, are staunch supporters of Xi and the CCP. They welcome the takeover and believe that life will be better for everyone, so the Taiwanese government should just accept it. Another said he would support unification under the CCP, but not while Xi is leader, and is very worried about a Chinese invasion. Another wants unification but not under the CCP, while the fifth doesn’t think much of either option but hates the DPP more. Perhaps for this group of friends, the term “pro-unification” is not as accurate as “anti-independence”. Xi has pledged to annex Taiwan and the White Paper said this could not be left to future generations. Taiwan’s resistance is growing, as is international support for its plight and what annexation might mean for the region. The easier option is to maintain the status quo, but to everyone at the dinner table in Taipei, the idea that Beijing could simply decide to back down and let Taiwan go is incomprehensible. “Impossible,” Chen said. “This is the mission of the Chinese. Why should they change?’ Additional reporting by Chi Hui Lin
