While sanctions aimed at undermining Vladimir Putin’s ability to wage his war have inevitably affected ordinary Russians, they have not directly targeted them. Even the ban on Russian planes entering EU airspace and the supply of parts for its aircraft were aimed at weakening its economy, not keeping the Russians out. The visa ban is different because it specifically targets citizens. It reinforces the Kremlin’s false narrative that the sanctions are not really about Ukraine, but a Western plot to bring down Russia and its people. Even moderate Russians may turn against the EU. As German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said: “This is not the Russian people’s war, it is Putin’s war.” Although Russians have repeatedly voted Putin into power, the system he has created bombards them with pro-Kremlin propaganda and offers them few alternatives. Where democracies have tried to isolate other authoritarian regimes, they have tried to maintain contacts with civil society, for example through student exchanges — to expose citizens, where possible, to an alternative system and worldview. Many Russians on a two-week package tour will have little to do with the locals or the media. But some will. Every bit of light that pierces the Kremlin’s obscuring curtain of lies is precious. Closing the tourist route would make it harder for others to leave for the EU Although reliable statistics are scarce, in addition, several hundred thousand Russians are estimated to have left their country since the start of the war, in concern or silent protest at what is happening. Many are young and well-educated, creating a brain drain that will compound the economic blow from sanctions. Some will become part of a growing liberal diaspora that may one day return to try to build a better, post-Putin Russia. Some left for migrant hotspots such as Armenia, Georgia, Turkey and Dubai, but many set off for the EU, initially on tourist visas, to look for work. Closing the tourist route would make it harder for others to leave for the EU, even if work or humanitarian visas remain open. It could be argued that the Russians already had six months to leave if they wanted to. But the longer the war drags on, the more vacillators may eventually head for the exits. The Kremlin may yet intensify its repression against its own people. EU foreign ministers will discuss the visa issue at an informal meeting in Prague this week. an EU summit could take concrete steps in October. With member states divided and questions over whether a Schengen-wide tourism ban is legally possible, one option could be to simply suspend the 2007 visa facilitation agreement with Russia. By making visas much more difficult and expensive, even this could sharply reduce Russian flows. Better to leave the door open for most, but extend the bans to government, military and security officials who choose to remain part of the Putin system. Further sanctions may still be needed to squeeze the Kremlin’s ability to prosecute its vicious war. But the guiding principle should remain that these are aimed at the war machine and the economy, not at excluding ordinary Russians from Europe.
