As the cost-of-living crisis bites and with no end in sight to the war with Russia, fears are mounting that the government’s Homes for Ukraine program will unravel next month, when the first six-month placements of refugees with hosts run out without alternative housing. Although Boris Johnson hailed the UK’s response to Russia’s invasion as a triumph of principle, some organizations are warning that a key government response to the conflict’s refugee crisis could cause a “catastrophic increase in homelessness”. A total of 83,900 refugees have arrived under the Homes for Ukraine program since it began in March. The refugees were matched with sponsors who agreed to house them for six months and were paid £350 a month. Not all matches were successful. Government figures reveal that since the war began in February, 1,335 Ukrainian households – including 945 families with children – have been registered as homeless. This number is expected to soar from next month. Analysis by children’s charity Barnardo’s, Labor and the Liberal Democrats says that, based on feedback from refugee sponsors, between 15,000 and 21,000 Ukrainians could be homeless by winter, rising to more than 50,000 by the middle of next year. One group, Refugees at Home, said the figure could be even higher due to a combination of pressures, including energy bills, soaring inflation and rising interest rates. Shadow Leveling Up secretary Lisa Nandy said: “These shocking figures reveal the scale of the crisis facing refugee families who came to Britain under the Homes for Ukraine scheme, fleeing Putin’s war.” When rank and file secretary Michael Gove unveiled the plan in March, Mr Nandy asked parliament what plans were in place for when funding collapsed, but received no response. When the government was asked by the Observer on Saturday about projected homelessness rates among Ukrainian refugees, it declined to provide a figure. James Jamieson, chairman of the Local Government Association, which represents more than 330 councils in England, warned that even if the Ukrainians could find a new host if the initial sponsorship did not work out, there were serious issues. “There is a significant risk that – even if a rematch is available – many Ukrainian families may have to come forward as homeless due to a lack of sponsors or other options,” he said. Last week, Refugee Secretary Lord Harrington said monthly payments to UK hosts should double after six months to £700 a month to offset concerns about the cost of living. But Harrington has no authority to implement the rise and so far the Treasury has refused. The government is now asking existing hosts to allow Ukrainians to stay for more than six months and is appealing for new sponsors. For many, the six-month period will end in mid-September, with a significant proportion of hosts saying that without additional government help they will have to retire. Several warn that attracting new hosts will be much more difficult. Stanislav Beneš of the charity Opora, which has helped around 8,000 Ukrainians in the UK, said: “The initial wave of donors included people who did not fully understand the implications and consequences of this kind of responsibility.” Although the government said on Saturday it was “reviewing” the level of support for the scheme, there is still no new or improved aid. Mayor of London Sadiq Khan said: “It is vital that the Government steps forward to provide more support. Ukrainian families have come to our country seeking help and stability, and the government must act now to ensure that hosts have the financial help and support to continue and prevent a catastrophic increase in homelessness.” Kitty Hamilton of Vigil for Visas said increased support should be offered for three years – as long as the visas given to Ukrainian refugees last. “The government’s commitment was for three years, not six months, so there needs to be a longer-term game plan that doesn’t waste the goodwill of so many. The plan was offered for an initial six months – the effect was to give the government a chance to make more substantial plans and end the invasion. But nothing has been done.” Hamilton is part of a group of sponsors in Crouch End, London, which manages 400 homes, and is so concerned about the number who may leave the scheme after six months that he will meet the local MP this week to discuss the theme. Nandy added: “British households across the country have grown, while their government has gone into hiding. No more delays, no more sticking plasters – we need a proper refugee housing and support plan.” Robina Qureshi, chief executive of Positive Action in Housing, said she was worried about “imminent homelessness on a massive scale” when the first half-term ends. A government spokesman said: “Councils have a duty to ensure that families are not left without a roof over their heads. We offered them £10,500 per person to cover costs, with access to a rematch service to find a new sponsor in the rare event of sponsorship ceasing. We have already acted to make sure the £350 thanks are tax-free and we continue to monitor and audit the support provided.’ They added that they are working closely with councils to ensure that Ukrainians have access to suitable housing if they decide to move on.

“We thought we would be back in Ukraine in six months because the war would be over”

Olha Plyushch and daughter Sandra are at risk of losing their home because their British sponsor is moving. Photo: Antonio Olmos/the Observer Olha Plyushch, 36, a refugee from Kyiv who works for the Ukrainian Institute in London and the charity Opora, where she advises Ukrainians arriving in the UK, said the rental process is a vicious cycle for refugees because they don’t they can pay large deposits and you don’t have a UK work history or willing guarantor. He meets people who are already homeless and sleeping on friends’ couches because their accommodation has collapsed. In some rare cases, he said, members of the British Ukrainian diaspora who can afford the costs help by renting out entire houses and letting rooms to refugees. “I know there are Ukrainians who have money to pay rent on a monthly basis, but they are asked to pay rent between six and 12 months in advance. This is a lot of money, so not many Ukrainians can afford it. “They do have jobs, so they have money to pay on a monthly basis, but, up front, a 12-month payment is too much. “It’s a very uncertain situation because September and October are actually when these six-month sponsorships end. But honestly, I can speak for myself and for many Ukrainians, when we made the decision to come here, we planned to return to Ukraine within six months because we all thought the war would be over. “But it’s not, and a lot of families are really confused right now because it didn’t go the way we planned.” Plyushch herself is in a housing dilemma because her sponsor is moving from London. Her 12-year-old daughter has a place at a school in Sidcup but has been unable to secure a school in Tunbridge Wells, the town her host is moving to.

I can’t get angry. I don’t have the energy for it. I’m just trying to be alive”

Olha Apriamova and her daughter Alina, refugees from Kyiv. Photo: Antonio Olmos/the Observer When Olha Apriamova and her nine-year-old daughter Alina’s Homes for Ukraine sponsorship collapsed via text message after less than a month in July, they didn’t know what to do. Apriamova, 34, whose husband died in the war in June, wrote to friends and was offered temporary accommodation in their two-bedroom flat, where the five of them now live. But finding something permanent is proving impossible. At every viewing of the apartment, the owners tell her they will not rent to refugees. Meanwhile, to work in her profession – as a plastic surgeon – in the UK, she has to go through many procedures and tests. And Alina, whose mental health is suffering after their experiences of a rocket attack in Kyiv, has not been to school since February 23 because they cannot find a place. Until recently, she could not be left alone, not even to go to the toilet, and had little interaction with other children. Now Apriamova, who wants to stay in London, is exhausted and doesn’t know what to do next. “I can’t be angry, I can’t be angry, because I don’t have any energy for it,” she said. “I’m just trying to be alive, to be safe.” He added: “I cannot return to Ukraine. I don’t know what I have, memories and that’s all. Everything is crushed – your life, your family, work… All the time, every day, several times a day, we heard a rocket signal. Can you imagine?”