While Democrats acknowledge they still face major obstacles, there has been an undeniable shift in mood, according to interviews with candidates, strategists and officials
Updated August 27, 2022 at 7:39 pm EDT|Posted August 27, 2022 at 7:01 pm EDT Storm clouds are seen over the dome of the US Capitol in July 2022 on Capitol Hill in Washington. (Tom Brenner for The Washington Post). Comment on this story Comment Democrats are increasingly confident they can limit losses in the House and possibly even salvage their majority in the midterm elections, with candidates and allied groups making moves to capitalize on backlash over abortion restrictions, signs of improvements in the economy and opposition to Donald Trump. After months of bleak predictions, Democrats are reinvesting in flipping Republican seats. They are also pouring more money into protecting a roster of their endangered incumbents — a list that party officials said has shrunk markedly since the spring. And they are trying to frame controversies surrounding abortion rights, putting Republicans on the defensive for stiff opposition to the process after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. Democratic fundraisers have reported an increase in donations over the past month, and at least one of the party’s biggest donors is considering putting more money into House races, according to people familiar with the situation. Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) is privately expressing more confidence about the House landscape and opportunities for attack, people familiar with the talks said, while President Biden’s White House has grown more optimistic about its outlook. A Biden adviser reacted sheepishly in a private meeting with reporters this month to the suggestion that Republicans were likely to regain control of Congress. GOP prospects narrow in House as Democrats overperform in primary contests While Democrats acknowledge they still face major obstacles, there has been an undeniable shift in sentiment, according to interviews with candidates, strategists and officials. What was once a party privately bracing for dozens of losses is now a party reassessing the House landscape and shifting to a more aggressive stance with roughly 10 weeks to go before Election Day. “I definitely feel a different energy than even three months ago, but certainly six months ago,” said Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), one of the most vulnerable incumbents of the year. Seeing a “narrow” path to retaining the majority, Slotkin added: “Six months ago I think people were making safe bets on a real boom. And I don’t see that happening.” A House Democratic strategist, who like others interviewed for this story spoke on condition of anonymity to speak candidly, was blunt in his assessment of what it would take to win the 218 seats needed for control. of the Parliament, in a room of 435 members. “The range has changed. The world we lived in before, if we ended up in the 200s, was pretty good,” the general said. “Now it’s much more that the majority play. We have a way. It is there.” Democrats only hold a five-seat majority in the House, putting Republicans very close to regaining control. Nonpartisan analysts still see the GOP as the favorite, and history shows the president’s party doesn’t tend to do well in a first midterm. Republican strategists pointed to continued opportunities for gains when Democrats defend and questioned whether recent indicators bode well for the downturn, particularly if prices rise again under Democratic reservation. “Every major group experiences some adversity,” Rep. Tom Emmer (Minn.), the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, wrote in a memo after a special election loss last week in New York’s 19th Congressional District. Trying to calm Republican nerves, as Democrats did last year, he added: “This will only make us stronger heading into Election Day.” But several Republican strategists have expressed concern about winning the House by single-digit margins, which would make it difficult for Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) to easily ascend to the speakership and could complicate the party’s ability to rallied even for routine party votes. The same strategists had hoped earlier this year to win a margin of 20 or more because of deteriorating national sentiment and rising inflation. In the Senate race, Democrats began to see signs of encouragement earlier this summer due to shaky Republican candidates and other factors also starting to emerge in House races, party strategists said. Abortion has been a key driver of the improved Democratic outlook, they noted, with the Supreme Court’s decision in June to strike down the constitutional right to abortion a key turning point that angered many voters. In four special elections for House seats since the ruling — including New York’s 19th District, where the party’s nominee has focused his campaign on abortion — Democrats have outperformed Biden in 2020. The resounding defeat of a ballot measure against of abortion in conservative Kansas was more evidence of the galvanizing effect of the court’s decision and subsequent efforts to curtail abortion rights, especially in states where the laws are at a standstill. Democrats in recent days have released ads in various House battleground races attacking Republicans for taking strict anti-abortion stances. “Showing fighting spirit is absolutely critical,” said Democrat Pat Ryan, who won New York’s 19th District after heavy abortions. “A lot of people rallied around strong, clear, unequivocal positions on issues that in the past, a lot of people would have said, ‘You should be a lot more sensitive or more tactful.’ Ryan’s victory came in a district that Biden won by less than two percentage points — giving Democrats hope to perform well in the 222 seats where Biden did best, party strategists said. But analysts have noted that recent special elections, including Ryan’s, have seen high turnout in hubs of college-educated voters. Ryan tempered the outlook for others. “I don’t know if it can be replicated,” he said of his win. Beyond abortion, Democratic strategists said they found falling gas prices and slowing inflation helping their chances. Democratic strategists have said they are beginning to feel, for now, that they can fight Republicans to boost the economy, in part because Republicans have not offered clear policy alternatives. Party leaders sought to channel these developments — along with recent legislative achievements on health care and climate change, as well as high-profile House committee hearings on the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol by a mob for Trump — on a simple argument they’re making to voters: Republicans are extreme and Democrats have gotten it done. They’re betting that such a platform will trickle down, particularly in the suburban battleground states, where the race for control of the House is expected to go big this fall. Such places have tilted heavily toward Democrats during Trump’s presidency, but are seen as ripe targets for Republicans amid economic malaise and resentment of Biden. Democrats’ newfound confidence about the overall map is evident in some of the party’s recent spending decisions. House Majority PAC, an outside group tasked with helping Democrats stay in the chamber, is investing in three GOP-held seats, according to data from trade tracking firm AdImpact. The new purchases are intended to boost Democratic challengers in California’s 22nd Congressional District, Ohio’s 1st Congressional District and New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District. All are Republican-held seats that Biden won in 2020. The House Democratic strategist, who said the majority was in play, said changes in the national mood had not yet led to an expansion of the Democratic battleground. However, they had eased their concern about some safer incumbents who appeared vulnerable earlier in the summer, allowing more resources to be put into fringe positions. A Democrat familiar with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s strategy, who spoke on condition of anonymity to share internal discussions, listed several Democratic lawmakers in the DCCC’s “Frontline” incumbent protection program who are no longer of concern to its leadership. party. They include Democratic Rep. Chrissy Houlahan (R) Bill Foster (ill); Mikie Sherrill (NJ); Jennifer Wexton (Va.) and Kathy E. Manning (NC), according to this person. Biden won easily in each precinct, taking between 55-58 percent of the vote there. “With 80 days to go, we really like the way it’s going,” Sean Patrick Maloney (DN.Y.), chairman of the DCCC, said in an interview. Reinforcing the limits of the Democratic outlook, Maloney, when pressed, clarified that he feels better now about “a certain layer of seats that normally wouldn’t bother us.” Republicans still feel they are on the offensive, putting pressure on Democrats, said Republican strategist Matt Gorman. He cautioned against reading too much into the special election results. “It’s almost like the scene from ‘I Love Lucy’ with the chocolates going down the conveyor belt: you can eat one, but you can’t eat them all at once,” Gorman said. “So Democrats can amend one, but you can’t do that in 25 races.” After a series of Democratic retirements and the decade-long redistricting process, Republicans were left with an open path to a majority that GOP officials said still exists — even if it doesn’t extend as deep into Democratic turf as many had hoped. The NRCC recently released a list of 74 seats they have targeted, including nine pick-up opportunities in districts Trump won by more than five…
