The entry for N read: “N is the Navy we keep at Spithead. /It is a sight that makes foreigners wish they were dead.’ The image showed French and German generals shivering like jelly as they surveyed the line of gray British battleships stretching across the horizon. Such overt displays of power matter to empires, embodying the power that sustains them. Right now, it helps to remember that Russia is an empire, particularly in the mind of Vladimir Putin. Indeed, his own justification for the war that began in 2014 and intensified six months ago is imperial. Ukraine is Russian, he says. If you disagree, he claims the right to kill you. Killing people is something Putin’s armies enjoy. Ukraine admits that more than 9,000 soldiers were killed. Current estimates indicate that more than 50,000 Ukrainian civilians have been killed by Russian shelling and shelling. But what is the great Russian Empire like? His love of torture and murder has not gone very far. It was quickly defeated in its primary objective – the capture of Kiev and the removal of President Zelensky. Her action was based on a misjudgment, not only of the tactical, but also of the democratic, independent nature of her victim – a false characteristic of arrogant but declining empires. Since then, Russia has moved forward, but ever so slowly. As of May, Ukrainians estimate, he has captured only 1 percent of the 20 percent of Ukraine he holds – one-hundredth of a fifth. They also estimate that this indecisive conflict has killed around 45,000 Russian soldiers. This second number could be overstated, but the trend is clear. Russians are traditionally overwhelmed by the weight of numbers. This time, those numbers haven’t overwhelmed their rivals. Where are the visible displays of Russian power? The Black Sea Fleet should have made the Ukrainian top brass wish they were dead, but it is Ukraine, with the early sinking of the cruiser Moskva and the later recapture of Snake Island, that is winning the naval “look”. This month, US-supplied Himars missile launchers (and possibly special forces operations) destroyed vital Crimean supply depots. Where is the exciting amphibious operation that was supposed to conquer Odessa? The Russian fleet docks at Sevastopol. Where are the innovations that great powers usually produce in war – new Russian bombs, submarines, weapons, jets, radars, cyber methods? Where are the crotch regiments and inspired generals? Very often, they are dead. Elite Russian paratroopers who attacked Hostomel airfield near Kyiv were beaten in their first major attack. What about hearts and minds? Russian governments never forget the decisive role of World War I conscription in fomenting the Bolshevik revolution of 1917. They fear its repetition. In February, a “special military operation” to crack down on “neo-Nazi” separatists seemed acceptable to many Russians, but it is another thing to mobilize the entire nation. Putin is forced to move towards it. The Moscow region produces few recruits. Cannon fodder comes from poor countries of the empire, such as Dagestan. This offer is running out. It’s not much fun living in a Russian satrapy these days. How long will Belarus remain in this situation if Kremlin-backed dictator Lukashenko falls? Russian satellites, such as Kazakhstan, have proven particularly unenthusiastic about war. There weren’t many Russian diplomatic victories either. Just before things kicked off, Xi Jinping foolishly declared that China’s friendship with Russia “knows no bounds,” but he quickly found plenty. Those Western experts, such as former general Sir Simon Mayall or former air marshal Edward Stringer, who claimed early on that Russia was losing the war, are vindicated. Stringer’s comparison was to the Battle of Britain. No territory changed hands during this struggle, he pointed out, but British resilience convinced the Germans that they could not win. Endurance brought victory. No such expert is yet declaring Ukraine victorious, however, although Ukraine’s achievements are notable. As James Sherr of the Estonian Foreign Policy Institute says, Putin is “determined to subdue Ukraine or destroy it.” If the former fails, the latter could succeed. John Gerson, a professor at the Institute of Politics at King’s College London with a background in the Foreign Office, fears that Russia may be like a drunken kitten pouncing on a kitten in its bed: “The kitten is scratching and biting it fiercely , but he’s too drunk to feel pain and when he wakes up in the morning, the kitten is dead.” The biggest concern, however, remains the attitude of the West. As terrible as this war is, it has awakened many of us. One of Putin’s – and possibly Xi’s – miscalculations was to think we were too weak to resist. He was almost right – the most extreme example being Angela Merkel’s Germany prostrated in the face of Russian gas, the most recent being President Biden’s embarrassing debacle from Afghanistan. However, this is not the first time that dictators have underestimated democracies. It was American and British intelligence that prompted Putin’s invasion plans by exposing them. British training, going back several years, was instrumental in Ukraine’s readiness when the dreaded day came. Germany, despite its historical aversion to dealing with Russia, is changing. NATO and even the EU have been galvanized. Money and weapons – though never enough – reached Ukraine in time. But will it last? Of the NATO allies not bordering Russia, only Britain under Boris Johnson – and soon Liz Truss – seems to fully understand that Ukraine needs our full support, not just out of pity for its plight, but and for European and global security. Elements in the US administration, led by Jake Sullivan, the National Security Adviser, seem content with “stability”, which entails a deal with Putin, rather than “security”, which requires his defeat. In Putin’s imperial doctrine, what he calls “anti-Russia” – the equivalent of the antichrist – has two faces. One is Ukraine itself. the other is the West as a whole. Ukraine is no more his last territorial claim than the Sudetenland was when Hitler promised it would be. For Putin, the post-Cold War European settlement must be overturned, the Western-dominated world order overturned. So the wider world watches this competition and will side with the winner. Putin is fighting this global battle by weakening the will of the West. In this, his energy threats are more powerful than threatening nuclear mutterings. Most of Europe feels at the mercy of Putin – a quality he does not have. Elected governments now face political crises over the cost of both heating and food. As winter approaches, the test of will becomes more intense. Face him, however, and new vistas open up. Despite the depth of the current crisis, energy reserves never run dry for long. By next year, a Europe no longer dependent on Russian energy will be a liberated continent. Russia will be correspondingly impoverished. Right now, the greatest danger to the West is the school of thought that considers itself “realistic.” Russia is an eternal power, he says. She is entitled to her interests. Let’s talk to Putin and get Ukraine to accept a “sensible” deal. Unrealistic, such an approach ignores reality – what Putin is already doing (very horribly) and why he is doing it. We must not support the eternal power of this crumbling empire. We must support her defeat.
