Six months of hell in Ukraine: how Putin’s war reached a stalemate
This week, Ukraine celebrated 31 years of independence from Soviet rule and marked six months of fighting against Moscow’s forces. The Russian president’s hopes for a quick victory have been dashed. Peace talks have stalled. Where do we go from here? asks Shaun Walker. In the early hours of February 24, the Russian offensive began, with missiles raining down on targets across Ukraine and ground troops moving into the country from three directions. That fateful decision irrevocably changed Ukraine, Russia, and the world in the intervening six months. Thousands of Ukrainians are dead and millions displaced. In the chaotic early days, events moved incredibly quickly. By the end of the first week, the country had already settled into a new reality. Split-second decisions often meant life or death. Throughout the occupied territories around Kyiv, Russian soldiers committed murders and other war crimes, leaving psychological scars that are likely to fester for generations. In the southern city of Mariupol, stories of corpses being buried in shallow courtyard graves, shelters in wet, icy basements, disease, miscarriages, hunger and deprivation, were reminiscent of the second world war. Yet amidst all the horror and trauma, there emerged a heartwarming story of a newly united country where past divisions evaporated in the face of the existential threat from the East.
Ukraine’s independence day is overshadowed by fear
Isobel Koshiw and Emma Graham-Harrison reported from Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, where fears of escalating Russian attacks overshadowed a somber independence day on Wednesday. A display of damaged Russian tanks and other military equipment on the main street replaced the usual military parade in the center of the city, both a celebration of Ukraine’s military success and a trolling of Moscow’s hopes for a quick victory. A boy waves a national flag over a Russian tank in Kyiv. Photo: Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters “I’m constantly worried and praying that our skies will stay blue,” said Yana Pasychnyk, a choral singer in one of Ukraine’s national choirs. “People I know, even my godfather, are fighting at the front. There is no celebration today. I can’t even believe this is happening.” Many in the capital took stock of both their achievements and their losses. Few outside Ukraine, even among its allies, expected the country to contain the Russian military so effectively, including in a decisive victory outside Kyiv. Shortly before Zelensky was scheduled to appear before the UN Security Council, news broke of a Russian strike on a train station in the eastern Ukrainian town of Chaplyne. At least 25 people were killed and 50 injured.
The bombing disconnects the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant from Ukraine’s grid
Fires caused by shelling cut the last remaining power line to the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant on Thursday, temporarily disconnecting it from Ukraine’s national grid for the first time in nearly 40 years of operation. The plant was disconnected twice after a fire in the ashes of a nearby coal-fired power plant affected the fourth and final connection to the plant’s reactors, Isobel Koshiw explained. Disconnecting the unit from the grid is dangerous because it increases the risk of catastrophic failure of the electrically powered cooling systems for the reactors and spent fuel rods. “Russia has brought Ukraine and all Europeans to a situation one step before a radioactive disaster,” Zelensky argued late Thursday. “If the diesel generators had not been turned on … if our station personnel had not reacted after the blackout, then we would already have had to overcome the consequences of a radioactive accident.” Ukraine’s nuclear chief warns of Russian activity at Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant Ukraine’s nuclear chief warns of Russian activity at Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant Earlier in the week, the head of Ukraine’s nuclear power company shared a detailed plan drawn up by Russia to disconnect the plant with Emma Graham-Harrison. Petro Kotin said Russian engineers had already drawn up a plan for a switch based on contingency planning if the remaining power connections were attacked. “A condition for this plan was major damage to all lines connecting the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant to the Ukrainian system.” The plant’s power connections were already in critical condition, with three of the four main lines connecting it to Ukraine’s grid damaged during the war and two of the three back-up lines connecting it to a conventional power plant also down. , Kotin added.
Daughter of Putin ally killed by car bomb in Moscow
Andrew Roth covered the moment the daughter of an ultra-nationalist Russian ideologue and ally of Vladimir Putin was killed in a car bomb on the outskirts of Moscow on Saturday night. Darya Dugina, whose father is Russian political commentator Alexander Dugin, died when the Toyota Land Cruiser she was driving was ripped apart by a powerful explosion at around 21:30 local time (1930 BST), investigators said. Prominent Russia hawks tried – without evidence – to quickly blame Kyiv for the attack, calling it an “assassination attempt” orchestrated by Ukraine’s intelligence services. Kyiv has categorically denied the allegations. Alexander Dugin next to a picture of his daughter Darya Dugina. Photo: Maxim Shemetov/Reuters Shaun Walker reflected on how each new claim about the attack seemed to raise more questions than it answered. Russia’s FSB security agency claimed to have dropped the case, alleging that a Ukrainian woman from the country’s Azov regiment entered Russia with her 12-year-old daughter in tow before driving off in her Mini Cooper, planting and detonating a professional explosive device and finally driving away . the country unnoticed. If the FSB’s version of events were true, it’s a shocking failure of an agency, and if false, it’s an oddly self-incriminating story to concoct. Darya Dugina in a television studio in Moscow before her death. Photo: Tsargrad.tv/Reuters Other versions of events floating around also seemed far from watertight. Former Russian lawmaker Ilya Ponomarev, now living in exile in Kyiv, claimed that insurgents from a previously unknown group called the National Republican Army were behind the attack. But Ponomarev provided no evidence, and many observers dismissed the claim as a publicity stunt. Officials in Ukraine said the killing was more likely a “false flag” operation, orchestrated by the Russian state in order to frame Ukraine and justify further violence.
Five predictions for the next six months in the Ukraine war
Dan Sabbagh provides a summary of what to expect for the next six months of the Russian invasion.
- The war will likely last for at least a year, but is essentially deadlocked and waning in intensity. Six months of war may have passed, but neither Ukraine nor Russia are ready to stop fighting. There have been no recent trades and frontline movement has been minimal since June. Both sides are struggling for momentum and are looking increasingly battle-worn.
- Ukraine lacks the means of an effective conventional counterattack, while insurgent raids are an optimistic way to hasten a Russian collapse. Ukraine would like to recapture Kherson in the south, but has so far failed to do so, shifting its strategy to long-range missile attacks and daring special forces raids on Russian bases deep behind the front lines.
- Russia is likely to turn to holding its gains and annexing Ukrainian territory. Russia has no new offensive plan, but by holding large parts of Ukrainian territory in the east and south, it is actively talking about holding annexation referendums. With colder weather fast approaching, he’s likely to focus on consolidating what he’s got.
- Winter will precipitate a new refugee crisis and create an opportunity for those who can better prepare. Ukraine lacks natural gas heating for many in frontline areas and worries that Russia will target its energy grid and even shut down the massive Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, sparking a new wave of migration abroad this winter. Spring, however, could be the time for a fresh attack, with each side looking to refresh and prepare for another season.
- The West must decide whether it wants Ukraine to win or just hold. Ukraine would have been defeated without Western military aid. But at no point so far has the West supplied enough artillery or other weapons, such as fighter jets, to allow Kyiv to repel the invaders. At the same time, the West needs to match humanitarian aid with the enormous and growing need.
