David Phelan
The next iPhones will soon be upon us. We think we already know a lot about them—how much, what they’ll look like, and how much they might cost—but until recently, the consensus was that they’d be unveiled on Tuesday, September 13th and released on Friday, September 23rd. This now appears to be wrong.
August 25 update below. This post was first published on August 22, 2022.
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Update August 25. So, as you will surely have heard, the cat is out of the bag and Apple has confirmed Wednesday September 7th as the date for the next special event. In turn, this as good as it tells us that the next iPhones, Apple Watches, and perhaps AirPods Pro will be released on Friday, September 16. And that the software release for iPhone and Apple Watch will be released sometime between September 7th and September 16th. By the way, my guess for the software release is Monday, September 12th.
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Confirmation of the event date came much earlier than most analysts expected (although as you will see, at the end of the original post here, I warned that an earlier reveal was possible). In itself, this is interesting, because it shows that Apple is very confident that it has its supply chain under control and can deliver on time: it wouldn’t be surprising if the new announcement was held up for another week, after all.
Second, it’s worth noting that the invitation, which is titled Far Out, identifies the exact location of the keynote: Steve Jobs Theater. This is important because it means there will definitely be an in-person element to the event and more than just brief appearances by Tim Cook and Craig Federighi at the start of the simulcast at WWDC in June.
Although Mark Gurman had said that Apple had videotaped the keynote in advance, I’d say this particular location suggests it may be more of a return to normality than before, namely a live keynote interspersed with video segments.
I have no doubt that the keynote will be followed as usual by a hands-on session allowing guests to see and feel the new products, something that was introduced again for the press after the WWDC keynote. And as the event promises a lot more in terms of material this time around, I’d also expect a return to the practice section just outside the theater room, rather than the upstairs reception area used last time.
From there, the regular details of Apple’s keynotes will certainly apply. And if you want to know what they are: snacks, drinks and canapés, often apple-themed, to greet visitors, strict crowd control to get everyone in, groups of people gawking at the (admittedly very cool) revolving lift that connects the two floors and a sense of anticipation that builds to an almost unbearable intensity half an hour before the keynote starts (always right on time — you can set your Apple Watch with it).
Whatever the exact setup turns out to be, this looks set to be a big and memorable event with more products than have been seen in a single keynote in years. And there’s still the prospect of more to come in October, when the Mac, iPad Pro and entry-level iPad are expected to be unveiled.
Update August 23. Further hints about an impending release come from MySmartPrice, which has spotted that a new item has just appeared as a listing for the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS), model number A2882.
Of course, the listing doesn’t have the courtesy to name the product, no luck, but MySmartPrice thinks it’s likely to be the iPhone 14. India’s National Standards Organization currently lists four models, the iPhone Xr, the iPhone 11, the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13. This additional number, which has not been seen before, may refer to the upcoming model, therefore.
What’s interesting about this is that it comes soon after reports of the iPhone 14 being made in India and available just two months after its launch, which is an interesting development.
Of course, this entry is not the same as a set date for the special event or release, but it is true that entries in such databases as these very often come just a few weeks, sometimes days, before a product is officially announced.
For Apple, there’s a tightrope it has to walk here: revealing enough information to satisfy standards authorities in a particular country, without giving away anything of substance.
After all, this new product could be nothing more than a power cord. It’s not, because it would be a completely different shape than the code, but the point is that Apple is playing its cards as close to its chest as possible.
By the way, for those interested in the details of Mark Gurman’s study of previous announcements and release dates, I’ve checked my own list and here’s the full data.
Release year phone reveal
2011 iPhone 4S October 4 October 14
2012 iPhone 5 September 12 September 21
2013 iPhone 5s/5c September 10 September 20
2014 iPhone 6/6 Plus September 10 September 20.
2015 iPhone 6s/6s Plus September 9 September 25
2016 iPhone 7/7 Plus September 7 September 16—the exact same dates I’m expecting for this year.
2017 iPhone 8/8 Plus/X September 12 September 22
(iPhone X November 3)
2018 iPhone Xs/ Xs Max/Xr September 12 September 21
2019 iPhone 11/Pro/Pro Max September 10 September 20
2020 iPhone 12/mini/Pro/Pro Max October 13 October 23
2021 iPhone 13/mini/Pro/Pro Max September 14 September 24
What is the date?
After Max Weinbach floated the idea that it could be nearly a week earlier, Mark Gurman at Bloomberg confirmed it. Now, Mark Gurman in his latest newsletter for Power On has gone into a lot more detail about what to expect regarding the release, with a reveal date of Wednesday, September 7th. Such an early release date isn’t unheard of, but it’s not far off. If this is correct, it would mean that the iPhone 14 line of phones plus three Apple Watch models will be released on Friday, September 16.
September is Apple’s favorite release month
Almost every flagship iPhone since 2011 has been released in September. The only exceptions were 2021, when Covid-19 meant Apple was delayed, so the iPhone 12 series was released in October, and 2011, when the iPhone 4s was the first iPhone to be released in the fall, also in October. Looking further into the dates, provided by Gurman, only once was the announcement date in the first week of September: the 2016 iPhone 7 launch took place on the same dates we expect this year: unveiling on September 7, on sale nine days later; on Friday, September 16. The usual practice is to announce the Tuesday in the second full week of September, between September 8 and September 15, followed by the sale of the products ten days later.
What does a Wednesday keynote really mean?
The reason for Wednesday’s event is revealing. On the face of it, it’s simply because Monday, September 5 is Labor Day. But wait: this only applies if Apple plans to fly press and staff to an in-person event. An online-only event could be held the day after a public holiday. We’re also hearing from sources like Gurman that the shooting of the high-production title film is well underway. Of course, this is partly a safety precaution: until the invitations actually go out, Apple may revert to the online version. For example, if there is a sudden spike in Covid infections, it could just go back to the internet (although I think that’s unlikely). In short, Wednesday’s key date reveals that a personal event is almost assured.
What will the event be like?
I believe the special event on September 7th will follow the same format that WWDC introduced in June. That is, a recorded key note will be played for guests in Cupertino to press as well. Before it begins, CEO Tim Cook and perhaps some other executives will appear live to kick things off. Gurman says, “In this scenario, you can expect members of the press to get their hands on new devices afterward.”
Why should I go early?
As I’ve written before, the earlier date means an extra week of iPhone sales to bolster the financials for the quarter ended September 30. As Gurman adds: “Apple faced a difficult comparison: its sales rose 29% in the fourth quarter of 2021 from 2020, making it difficult to match this growth. Another week of iPhone 14 sales will help the company easily surpass last year’s $83 billion mark.” And it seems to confirm that Apple’s supply chain is in rough shape.
When will we know for sure?
When the invitations go out. Gurman says, “I’d guess between August 29th and August 31st,” though I’d add that Apple has been known to send invitations earlier, so stay tuned. More as we have them. MORE FROM FORBESApple iOS 15.6.1: Emergency iPhone update suddenly released with vital fixes by David Phelan
