A Statistics Canada report released Monday projects Canada’s population could reach 47.8 million in 2043 and 56.5 million by 2068 under a medium-growth scenario. Other population projection scenarios say Canada’s population could grow to between 44.9 and 74.0 million in 2068. However, the StatCan report noted that this could have an impact on housing availability. Last June, a report from the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation projected the country’s housing stock to grow by 2.3 million units over the next decade, but said Canada needs an additional 3.5 million affordable homes by 2030. Mike Moffatt, a professor at Western University’s Ivey Business School and senior director at the Smart Prosperity Institute, says the report shows Canada’s housing supply is “not enough to keep up with the growing population.” “I definitely think we should be able to plan for this level of growth that we know is coming. It’s definitely going to be a challenge to house that many people,” he told CTVNews.ca in a phone interview Wednesday. “We need to make sure we build homes at all price points to accommodate a growing population.” StatCan forecasts that growth will be unevenly distributed across the country. Alberta is expected to have the highest growth in the country, with the province’s population in 2043 expected to be 31 to 61 percent larger than it is now. In some scenarios, the Wildrose Province is projected to have a larger population than B.C “Alberta has done a pretty good job of building enough housing for a growing population. Alberta has been growing quite rapidly over the past few decades and has been able to maintain its housing supply. There have been issues around land use and environmental issues, but from a purely numerical standpoint, they made it,” Moffatt said. Population growth in B.C., Ontario and Saskatchewan is projected to be about 14 to 40 per cent by 2043, according to the analysis. Manitoba’s population is expected to grow between 11 and 40 percent, while Quebec’s population is estimated to grow between 12 and 19 percent. Moffatt believes that Ontario and BC are less prepared to deal with the coming growth, given that housing shortages are more severe in those two provinces. “I think most provinces shouldn’t have much of a problem with that (population growth). I’d be mostly just concerned about Ontario and B.C.,” Moffat said. Meanwhile, Atlantic Canada’s population could decline by 1.5 per cent or increase by as much as 16 per cent by 2043, the report says. Newfoundland and Labrador is the only province projected to have negative population growth under each projection scenario. Population growth in the regions is expected to be around eight to 28 percent.
OVER A QUARTER OF CANADIANS WILL BE 65 AND OLDER IN 2068
Currently, 18.5 percent of Canadians are age 65 or older. However, under a medium growth scenario, StatCan projects that the proportion of seniors will increase to 23.1 percent in 2043 and 25.9 percent in 2068. The median age in Canada was 41.7 years in 2021, but by 2068, it is expected to increase to 45.1 years. While Canada’s population is growing, StatCan says the national fertility rate hit a record low of 1.4 in 2020 and is expected to decline in the coming years. Instead, immigration has been the main driver of population growth, but StatCan notes that immigration “is not able to significantly increase the proportion of youth in the population.” Experts say these numbers underscore the need to ensure the federal and provincial governments have a plan to meet the health care needs of the aging population. “There’s nothing sudden about it. So the idea of planning for an aging population is clearly feasible because it’s a glacial progression,” Susan McDaniel, a sociology professor at the University of Victoria, told CTVNews.ca in a phone interview on Wednesday. “What we need are better systems to handle chronic diseases — things like arthritis that don’t require hospitalization but can lead to mobility challenges, sometimes minor, sometimes major,” he added. A 2018 report from the Conference Board of Canada said Canada’s aging population will add $93 billion to provincial health care spending. It also costs the public health care system $12,000 a year to cover health needs for the average senior, compared to $2,700 for the rest of the population, the report said. Dr. Samir Sinha, who is director of geriatrics at Toronto’s Mount Sinai Hospital, notes that when Canada’s universal health care system was born in 1966, the average age and life expectancy in Canada were much lower. “Back in 1966, the average Canadian was about 27 years old and most Canadians didn’t live past their 60s,” he told CTVNews.ca by phone Wednesday. “We designed the modern health care system largely around the needs of a much younger population.” “Other forms of care, like drugs or PharmaCare, dental care, home care and … long-term care — all of these were not included in our overall health care system. And as you know, if you don’t actually have those services covered enough and are available, it means people are really dependent on their doctors or hospital care,” Sinha added.
