Why it matters: Slowing inflation and lower gas prices are also big factors. But officials from both parties tell us abortion has fueled Democratic engagement like no other issue since President Trump left office.

The result: A reset for a party that was defensive and frustrated before the Supreme Court’s June decision that overturned Roe v. Wade. 75 days from Election Day, Democrats now have a good chance of retaining the Senate. And holding the GOP to a narrow House victory is now a realistic possibility.

What’s happening: Abortion has helped deliver primary wins for Democrats in both fundraising and turnout that are approaching, and in some cases, exceeding 2018’s historic levels.

Now, officials in both parties see signs that a red tide of GOP midterm gains that once seemed inevitable could be blunted.

Leading the news: Tuesday night’s primaries in New York and Florida offer the latest.

Democrat Pat Ryan’s surprise victory in the House special election (NY-19) was driven by an abortion-centric message. “The choice was on the ballot. Freedom was on the ballot and tonight choice and freedom won,” Ryan said in a post-election victory statement. Ryan’s ads focused on protecting abortion rights, while his GOP opponent, Marc Molinaro, hammered Democrats on the economy and crime. Ryan won by two points in a district that Biden carried by the same margin. In the Florida primary, more Democrats showed up to vote (1,513,180) than in 2018 (1,509,960). Given that 2018 was a historically favorable year for Democrats and 2022 looked like a Democratic wipeout recently, the similar level of Democratic engagement is surprising.

The big picture: An Axios analysis found that Democratic turnout in gubernatorial primaries increased between 2018 and 2022 in five of the eight states that held contested primaries after June following the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision. But, but, but… Republicans also ran at all-time highs throughout the primary calendar.

In battleground states like Arizona and Florida, where Democratic primary turnout has increased since 2018, Republican turnout in those states has been even higher — driven by issues like the economy, immigration and competitive primaries where attended by former President Trump. Democrats may not be able to control that, but if they can give their own base a reason to get out, they can at least stay competitive.

Recent polls confirm the growing importance of abortion rights in the mid-term dynamic.

A Pew Research Center poll conducted Aug. 1-14 found that 56 percent of voters said the abortion issue would be “very important” in their midterm decision. That’s up 13 percentage points from Pew’s March survey. The increased interest in abortion was driven entirely by Democratic voters. A new NBC News poll found that Democrats are closing in on Republican enthusiasm for midterm voting, with partisans citing abortion as a top issue. Only 38% said they supported the Dobbs decision, while 58% opposed it. Abortion rated as the top issue in last week’s Fox News polls in Arizona and Wisconsin, coming in closer to economic concerns. In Arizona, 20 percent of respondents said inflation was the most important issue in the Senate race, with 16 percent naming abortion rights. In Wisconsin, 28 percent cited financial concerns as the top issue, while abortion came in second at 17 percent.

The bottom line: The economy is still the top issue for voters. But lower gas prices in the past week are helping to improve the mood for swing voters — and signaling to grassroots voters that they can afford to let themselves be motivated by issues like reproductive rights rather than pure pocketbook needs .

“The drop in gas prices is such a powerful mood lifter,” said one Democratic strategist after witnessing a focus group at a Midwestern battleground race. “People complained about prices and general economic things, but there was some optimism that things were getting better.” “This allows people to focus on the dynamics of the social issue and the division they don’t like.”