Comment Beware the emerging Tehran-Moscow alliance: Russia has begun using Iranian drones in the Ukraine war, and Iran has offered to share its financial networks to help Russia avoid sanctions, according to Western intelligence officials. For Russia, struggling to maintain momentum in Ukraine after six months of violent conflict, new Iranian aid could be a game-changer, intelligence officials warn. “This is not just a tactical alliance,” one official explained. With China and India refusing to sell arms to Russia, Iran could become a key conduit for arms and money. “They know all the tricks in the book” when it comes to evading sanctions, the Iranian intelligence official said. Iran can leverage its existing infrastructure network of shell companies and other financial institutions in this sanctions-busting campaign. Iranian economic aid to Russia would be even easier if sanctions against Tehran are lifted as part of the renewal of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, intelligence officials have warned. To bolster Russia’s depleted weapons stockpile, Iran has begun delivering “hundreds” of suicide drones, according to intelligence officials. These drones would likely be part of the “Shahed” series, about the size of a US Predator, which Iran has used successfully in Iraq and Syria. Follow David Ignatius’ viewsFollow Add US-Iran tensions have escalated sharply, even as the two countries appear to be nearing an agreement to revive the nuclear deal. Iranian-backed proxies carried out a sophisticated drone attack on August 15 on a US base in al-Tanf, southern Syria. No Americans were killed or injured. But it was an audacious attack, and the US Central Command announced on Tuesday that the United States had retaliated with “precision airstrikes” on a base near Deir ez-Zor used by groups linked to its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Iran. “We will protect our people and strike those responsible, including the IRGC, if they continue like this,” a senior government official said on Wednesday. The Biden administration has been warning for more than a month about the danger of Iran supplying drones to Russia. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told CNN on July 15 that Iran is “preparing to provide Russia with several hundred UAVs, including weapons-capable UAVs,” and that a Russian delegation inspected a “showcase” of drones at an Iranian airport. Iran immediately assured Ukraine’s foreign minister that the US reports were false. In fact, the Russians were quick to put Iranian drones over the battlefield. “In recent weeks, Russian officials have conducted training in Iran as part of the UAV transport agreement,” an NSC spokeswoman told me on Wednesday. He also noted that Russia had this month launched an Iranian “Khayyam” satellite, which has “significant spying capabilities.” To expand Russian-Iranian economic ties — and create a framework for avoiding sanctions — Russia sent executives from Gazprom and other companies to Tehran, according to a Tuesday article in Politico. Iranian economic officials have also visited Moscow. “Under what traders call a ‘swap’ deal, Iran could import Russian crude on the northern Caspian coast and then sell equivalent amounts of crude on Russia’s behalf to Iranian tankers leaving the Persian Gulf,” he noted. Politico. The budding Moscow-Tehran alliance adds a new hurdle to renewing the 2015 nuclear deal. American officials remain convinced that their limits on Iranian uranium enrichment will enhance the security of both the United States and Israel. But Tehran has demanded concessions outside the framework of the deal, which the Biden administration has so far refused to make. Iran’s most important demand is that the United States pressure the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna to stop its investigation of undeclared nuclear sites. “No agreement will be implemented until the IAEA Board of Governors definitively closes the false accusations file,” a spokesman for the Iranian negotiating team tweeted on Tuesday. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi had said the day before that his agency would not stop the investigation if Iran did not cooperate. “Give us the necessary answers, the people and the places, so we can clarify the many things that need clarification,” Grossi said. The US is apparently unwilling to budge on the IAEA investigation. “We have made it known to Iran, both publicly and privately, that it must answer the IAEA’s questions. … Our position on this is not going to change,” White House National Security Council Coordinator John Kirby said Wednesday. Iran’s other two demands also appear to be non-starters. Tehran had asked Washington to remove the IRGC from the list of terrorist groups, but the Biden administration flatly refused. And the Iranians want assurances that a subsequent US administration will not withdraw from the deal, as President Donald Trump has done. Biden apparently cannot commit to a next president, and Congress would not pass such a pledge. Russia’s drone deal with Iran is a sign of how serious Moscow’s arms supply problems have become after six months of war in Ukraine. Intelligence officials say Moscow was initially reluctant to reach out to Tehran, whose leaders it distrusts and whose nuclear ambitions it has consistently opposed. Russia likes to think it’s a superpower that doesn’t need help from an annoying neighbor. “It shows a lot of desperation on the part of the Russians that they are depending on the Iranians here,” the senior government official said. Right now, struggling to respond to the flow of arms from the United States and its NATO allies to Ukraine, Russia cannot afford to be so selective. This serves a short-term need. But it puts Russia in an even more isolated and dangerous place.
War in Ukraine: What you need to know
The last: Grain shipments from Ukraine are being accelerated under the agreement reached by Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the United Nations in July. Russia’s blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports had sent food prices skyrocketing and sparked fears of more famine in the Middle East and Africa. At least 18 ships, including cargoes of wheat, corn and sunflower oil, have departed. The battle: The conflict on the ground continues as Russia uses its heavy artillery advantage to pound Ukrainian forces, which have at times managed to put up stiff resistance. In the south, Ukraine’s hopes rest on liberating the Russian-held region of Kherson, and eventually Crimea, which Russia seized in 2014. Fears of a disaster at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant persist as both sides accuse each other of they bomb. The weapons: Western arms supplies are helping Ukraine slow Russian advances. US-supplied High Mobility Artillery Missile Systems (HIMARS) allow Ukrainian forces to strike further behind Russian lines against Russian artillery. Russia has used a range of weapons against Ukraine, some of which have drawn the attention and concern of analysts. Photos: Washington Post photographers have been on the ground since the start of the war — here are some of their strongest works. How you can help: Here are ways those in the US can help support the Ukrainian people, as well as the donations people have made around the world. Read his full coverage Russia-Ukraine crisis. Are you on Telegram? Subscribe to our channel for updates and exclusive video.
