“This is a huge win for Democrats in one district, Biden +1.5,” according to Dave Wasserman, the doyen of congressional race watchers, keywords being “huge” and “bellwether.” In other words, Republican efforts to turn the race into a referendum on Democrats and inflation failed. On the campaign trail, Ryan made abortion a central issue. “The choice is [on] the ballot, but we won’t go back,” he wrote on Facebook hours before the polls opened. “Freedom is under attack, but the defense is ours.” Usually, midterms spell disaster for the “middle” party that controls the White House. From the looks of things, 2022 may be different. There is a clear backlash against the US Supreme Court’s distortion of privacy and personal autonomy. At the same time, continued reports of Trump’s mishandling of top-secret documents and possible obstruction of justice charges against the 45th president cloud the future of his party. The end of Roe v Wade is not the blessing that Republicans had assumed it would be. Looking back, the defeat of the Kansas anti-abortion referendum was not an isolated event. For the majority of the court, it seems that being “right” was more important than being smart. Ginny’s husband Thomas and four of his colleagues could have upheld Mississippi’s abortion law without overturning half a century of precedent. Chief Justice Robert’s concurring opinion made that reality crystal clear. But across the country, Republican candidates still look dangerous to double down. Tudor Dixon, the Republican candidate for governor of Michigan, spoke on behalf of a 14-year-old rape victim who carried the child to the end. “The bond that these two people created and the fact that that tragedy brought healing to this baby is something we don’t think about,” Dixon said in an interview. Meanwhile, in Florida, an appellate court upheld a lower court’s decision barring a 16-year-old parentless woman from terminating her pregnancy. The unnamed mother-to-be had failed to prove she was “mature enough to decide whether to terminate her pregnancy”. On the other hand, the learned judges and the Republican State Legislature believed that she was of sufficient age to bear and raise a child. And then there’s Texas. Later this week, doctors who perform abortions face up to life in prison and fines of at least $100,000. Under current Texas law, abortions are prohibited after six weeks, and the state statute contains no exceptions for rape or incest. Heading into the fall, Democrats will also be bolstered by Joe Biden’s slowly rising approval numbers, tamer inflation numbers and the emergence of the precariousness of democracy as a campaign issue. According to a recent NBC poll, the threat to US democracy has overtaken the cost of living as the No. 1 issue for voters. Or, in the words of Congressman-elect Ryan, “Our democracy is fragile, but we will fight for it.” Adding to the Republican woes is the poor performance of Trump-backed Senate candidates in the primary. In Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Georgia, all are behind. By the numbers, forecasters are giving Democrats a better than three-in-five chance of continuing to control the upper chamber and staying afloat on Biden’s judicial nominations. These days, even Sen. Mitch McConnell admits his chances of becoming majority leader again are lopsided: “Senate flip… It’s a 50/50 proposition… I think the outcome is likely to be very, very close either way either way. He also reminded Republicans that running for the Senate is not the same as running for a House seat, albeit with a louder and bigger microphone. “Senate races are all over the state,” McConnell noted. “They’re just different in nature from individual congressional districts.” Apparently, Sen. Rick Scott, the chairman of the Republican National Senate Committee, hasn’t noticed yet. First, he burned through a bunch of campaign cash. Now, he’s been spotted vacationing on a luxury yacht off the coast of Italy while the Americans struggle. On Monday, Scott tweeted: “Another week of President Biden vacationing in Delaware vs working at the White House.” Cluelessness is not just the province of Justices Alito, Thomas and Kavanaugh.
